Just came across an interesting blog: calgarygrit.blogspot.com. Anyway, the author published an interesting post about Toronto Danforth. You can find it here:
It begins with the following comment of interest:
The by election in Toronto Danforth (or, as it must be referred to in every article on the subject, “Jack Layton’s old seat”) has been called for March 12 March 19. If you’re looking for political excitement, by elections may be as good as it gets over the next three years of majority government politics.
By elections are notoriously hard to handicap, but a glance at last year’s results makes the favourite obvious:
Layton (NDP) 61%
Lang (Lib) 18%
Koenig (CPC) 14%
Mugnatto-Hamu (Green) 6%
A 43-point margin is daunting, but not insurmountable. After all, three of the seventeen Harper era by elections have seen one party pick up at least 25 points – the NDP in Outremont (+30), the Liberals in Winnipeg North (+37), and the Tories in Cumberland Colchester (+37). There were unique circumstances in play for all three, but the death of the most popular politician in Canada is fairly unique, so a win by the Grits isn’t impossible.
By the way, Toronto Danforth is NOT Jack Layton’s old seat. Actually it is the People’s Seat.