Toronto Danforth – NDP Vote

Reposted with permission from The Calgary Manifesto.

It has been a busy week with various other projects, it seems this blog is becoming a productive way to procrastinate on school. That being said, I’ve completed the rest of the Toronto Danforth mapping:

At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be any significant change between 2008 and 2011 in NDP vote support, but the initial visual is deceiving. The two maps are built on different vote scales, so the darker orange on the 2011 map is at least 10% stronger support than in 08.  An initial qualitative assessment would conclude that the support patterns are largely inverted to the LPC, indicated that gains in Danforth in 2011 came at the expense of the Liberal Party. As Elections Canada will likely be using the same polls for the ByElection, this provides an opportunity for use to quantify a possible vote shift back to the Libs. A northward march for the NDP, and a southward march for the CPC may leave the LPC with nowhere left to go.

The strongest growth areas can be seen on the western edge of the riding, and on the eastern edge, about halfway up. I wish I had the demographics broken down for the ridings, because that growth is definitely on the upper edge of the curve. I’d be curious as to the demographic classes which saw an above average break for the NDP. Floating center left voters may be valuable in the coming years. For those with a statistical inclination, ByElections are great opportunities to explore electoral dynamics, as you can run calculations using identical poll numbers. If I survive this semester, Danforth will be a fun race to examine indepth.

If all goes well, I’ll add the provincial breakdowns as well, but we’ll see. Hopefully the next post will be more than just a cursory look.






Today’s letters: There ought to be a law … – National Post

Last week, letters editor Paul Russell asked readers: “If you were prime minister, what law would you pass?” We’ve been inundated with responses (75 words or less).

Rein in politicians

I would make a law that mandates these qualifications for aspirants to public office. You are: not a lawyer, not in need of money, not on a career path and not a member of a political party. You have: children, seen the inside of a jail cell, single citizenship, compassion and have been hungry. That should hinder careerists, egomaniacs, greed merchants, silver spoon socialists and sundry scoundrels from infesting our institutions like rats on the ship of state.
David J. Baughn, Toronto.

Every elected politician should spend one day every two weeks in front-line services for the poor. Not on the committee to organize the next fund-raising dinner, but helping find a homeless person a home or a veteran their benefits. Having to confront these groups and their problems “up close and personal” might make for better laws all round. “A nation’s greatness is measured by how it treats its weakest members.” (Mahatma Ghandi)
Jim Drummond, Halifax.

Let’s have a law that makes it illegal for anyone in Canada to be a professional politician.
Robert Cunningham, Bonfield, Ont.

Read more suggestions here.

Meet the Canadidates – Applegrove – March 1, 2012 – 7:00 p.m.

On March 1, 2012 at 7:00 p.m. you are encouraged  to meet the Toronto Danforth candidates at Applegrove Community Complex:

60 Woodfield Road.

The poster  advertising the meeting is  below.


Meet Neil Sinclair – the moderator or should we  see “Master of  Ceremonies”. Neil  was a superb candidate in Ward 32 in the 2012 Municipal  Election.  We have found that Municipal Candidates make very good moderators. In the past both Liz West (Ward 30 candidate) and Jennifer Wood (Ward 29 candidate) have moderated our debates. Meet Neil  in the following video. Continue reading Meet the Canadidates – Applegrove – March 1, 2012 – 7:00 p.m.

Eleven candidates only Andrew Keyes has not confirmed participation in the March 15 candidates debate

So, we will invite Andrew Keyes the Conservative candidate again.

In the last Federal Election, the National Post wrote an article about the problem of candidates not appearing in debates. In the April 28, 2011 debate neither the NDP nor the Conservative candidates appeared.

Veteran candidate John Turmel to contest Toronto Danforth By-election

The Toronto Danforth by-election is turning into a festival of democracy. At the time of writing there are now eleven candidates. The latest to register is John Turmel. Mr. Turmel is a veteran candidate who is certain to add to the high level of interest in this election. A fascinating description of Mr. Turmel’s political career may be found here.

A warm welcome to Mr. Turmel.

The Battle for Toronto-Danforth

Posted with permission of the author Theresa Lubowitz

The Battle for Toronto-Danforth

February 11, 2012

The Candidates

Last month the federal NDP nominated Craig Scott, a professor of law at Osgoode Hall Law School at York University. Scott’s areas of political interests include human rights issues, both around the world and here at home with our Aboriginal peoples, and ending discrimination in the housing sector.

This month, the federal Liberals nominated advertising executive and FLICK OFF founder Grant Gordon. Gordon’s firm, which he also founded, focuses on branding socially and environmentally responsible companies. His candidacy for the Liberal nomination made waves in the news because of the fresh, positive, and fun approach he brought to politics through an amusing call to action for voters. Gordon’s political interests include protecting the environment and the security of our pension system.

Both candidates reside in Riverdale and have had successful careers making a difference in Canada and beyond its borders. Continue reading The Battle for Toronto-Danforth